As U.S. markets remain closed for the weekend, Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) heads into Monday with renewed investor attention. After a powerful rally through 2025, Intel’s stock now sits at a crossroads. Optimism is rising—but so are expectations.
The central question facing investors hasn’t changed much over the years: can Intel finally turn bold manufacturing plans into steady execution and lasting profits? What has changed is the backdrop. Intel now has a new CEO, major strategic investors, government backing, and a manufacturing roadmap that could reshape its future if it delivers.
This weekend, several developments, from leadership messaging to technology showcases and analyst debate, help frame where Intel stands today and where it might be headed next.
Where Intel Stock Stands Going Into Monday
Intel shares ended Friday’s session around $36.20, with only slight movement in after-hours trading. The exact number matters less than what it represents.
The $36 level has become a psychological checkpoint. Intel stock is up roughly 80% in 2025, marking one of its strongest years in over a decade. That rebound followed a long stretch of disappointment, declining market share, and doubts about the company’s manufacturing strategy.
Yet despite the rally, Wall Street remains cautious. Analyst reports read less like victory speeches and more like engineering reviews—careful, conditional, and focused on proof rather than promises.
CEO Lip-Bu Tan Calls 2025 a “Defining Year”
One of the most widely discussed Intel headlines over the weekend came from CEO Lip-Bu Tan, who described 2025 as a “defining year” for the company.
In year-end remarks and social media posts, Tan emphasized three themes:
- Cultural reset
- Stronger execution discipline
- Rebuilding trust with customers and partners
He also thanked employees and said Intel is returning to an engineering-first mindset, focused on accountability and delivery rather than hype.
For investors, this messaging matters. Leadership tone often sets expectations for cost control, timelines, and transparency—especially as Intel prepares to enter a critical phase of its turnaround in 2026.
Intel Foundry Shows Ambition With Advanced Packaging
Beyond leadership messaging, Intel made waves on the technology front.
Intel Foundry recently showcased a concept design for an extreme multi-chip package—a massive system that combines many computing units and memory stacks into a single product. While this exact design isn’t headed to market soon, it sends a clear signal.
Intel is no longer pitching itself as just a chipmaker. It’s selling a full system solution:
- Advanced manufacturing processes
- Advanced packaging
- The ability to assemble complex AI chips at scale
This matters because in today’s AI-driven world, how chips are packaged is almost as important as how they’re designed. If Intel can compete on both fronts, it strengthens the case that Intel Foundry can attract serious customers—not just experimental projects.
The Key Concern: Can Intel Prove 18A Works at Scale?
Despite impressive demonstrations, investors remain focused on one issue above all others: real customer adoption.
Intel’s turnaround hinges on its leading-edge manufacturing process known as 18A. The company says the technology is progressing well, but the market wants proof in the form of long-term customer contracts.
That’s why a previous Reuters report still hangs over the stock. According to the report, Nvidia evaluated Intel’s 18A process but chose not to move forward, at least for now. Nvidia did not publicly comment, and Intel said it continues to see strong interest in future nodes, including 14A.
The takeaway for investors is simple:
Interest is encouraging—but volume commitments are what matter.
Why the Nvidia Relationship Still Matters
While Nvidia may not yet be a major foundry customer, it would be a mistake to dismiss the broader partnership.
Nvidia and Intel have announced collaboration across AI infrastructure and PC platforms. Nvidia has also committed to investing $5 billion in Intel stock, pending regulatory approvals.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has framed the partnership as part of a broader AI-driven industrial shift, while Intel leadership has highlighted how Intel’s CPUs, manufacturing, and packaging capabilities can complement Nvidia’s AI dominance.
Even without a full manufacturing deal, Nvidia’s involvement:
- Improves Intel’s credibility
- Signals confidence from a top AI leader
- Strengthens Intel’s ecosystem story
Intel’s Financial Baseline Heading Into 2026
Intel’s most recent financial results still shape expectations.
In Q3 2025, Intel reported:
- Revenue of $13.7 billion, up year over year
- Adjusted earnings of $0.23 per share
- Q4 revenue guidance of $12.8–$13.8 billion
Management described the results as showing “improved execution,” particularly as AI-related demand increases across computing platforms.
Intel’s CFO also highlighted:
- U.S. government funding
- Strategic investments from Nvidia and SoftBank
- Improved balance sheet flexibility
These factors give Intel more room to manage costs and fund its manufacturing push.
Why Profits Are Likely to Improve in 2026
At first glance, Intel’s profits still look weak. But that surface-level view misses a key transition underway.
Over the past few years, Intel invested heavily in new fabs in:
- Ireland (Intel 3)
- Arizona (18A)
During construction, Intel outsourced much of its advanced chip production to TSMC, which operates at very high profit margins. Meanwhile, Intel’s own foundry business posted large losses due to underused factories.
That situation is beginning to change.
As Intel moves more production back in-house:
- Factory utilization rises
- Underuse losses shrink
- Payments to TSMC decline
This creates a double benefit: better margins and lower external costs. While 18A yields are still improving, management expects steady progress through 2026.
Technology Edge Could Boost Margins Further
Intel believes its 18A process could match—or even exceed—TSMC’s next-generation technology in certain areas.
One major advantage is backside power delivery, which moves power wiring to the back of the chip. This frees up space for more transistors on the front, improving performance and efficiency.
Intel is also ahead in adopting next-generation lithography tools, which can simplify manufacturing and reduce production steps. While Intel has officially said these tools will be used for its future 14A process, the company has already completed testing and has the equipment in hand.
If Intel integrates these tools sooner, it could gain both cost and performance advantages.
External Customers: The Final Piece of the Puzzle
Intel has been clear: its foundry business needs large external customers to succeed.
Rumors suggest:
- Apple may use an advanced Intel node for some future chips
- Analysts report strong feedback on Intel’s upcoming 14A process
- Reports indicate Nvidia and AMD are at least evaluating Intel’s future nodes
If Intel announces a major external customer in 2026, it would be a turning point for the stock.
What 2026 Could Look Like for Intel Stock
2025 marked the first phase of Intel’s turnaround:
- New CEO
- Reduced costs
- Return to modest profitability
- Major strategic backing
2026 could bring:
- Rising profits
- Better margins
- Technology validation
- External foundry wins
If Intel delivers on even part of this roadmap, the rally may not be over.
Investor Analysis: Is Intel Stock Worth Buying Now?
Intel is no longer a broken story—but it’s not a finished one either.
Bull case:
- Stock still trades far below major AI peers
- Manufacturing losses likely to reverse
- Strong government and partner support
- Real upside if foundry strategy works
Bear case:
- Execution risk remains high
- Foundry customer wins are not guaranteed
- Competition from TSMC and AMD is intense
Intel is best viewed as a long-term turnaround investment, not a quick trade. For patient investors willing to accept uncertainty, the next two years could be defining.
Intel stock soared in 2025, but the real test comes next. If the company turns promises into production and interest into contracts, 2026 could reshape Intel’s future—and its stock price.
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